Cyber ​​Metal Trading Co., Ltd. – icyerekezo cy’igihe gito ku isoko mpuzamahanga ry’ingufu za aluminiyumu 2026–2030

Cyber ​​Metal Trading Co., Ltd.(hanyuma yitwa "Cyber") iherutse gushyira ahagaragaraRaporo y'icyerekezo cy'igihe cyo hagati ku isoko mpuzamahanga rya aluminiyumumu gihe cya 2026-2030. Raporo isoza ivuga ko, nyuma y’imyaka itanu y’ubwiyongere bw’ibicuruzwa by’amashanyarazi bukabije hamwe n’itandukaniro ry’imiterere y’ibikenewe mu mikoreshereze yabyo, isoko ry’aluminiyumu ku isi rizagenda riva mu gipimo cy’ifaranga ryari risanzwe ridafite agaciro mu myaka itanu iri imbere maze ryinjire mu ruziga rushya rurangwa no kongera kuringaniza ibikenewe n’ibicuruzwa no kongera kubaka imiterere y’ibiciro.

I. Uruhande rw'Ibikoresho: Kugabanuka kw'Inyongeragaciro Nshya, Ibiciro Bizamuka Biri Mbere

Kuva mu 2021 kugeza mu 2025, ubushobozi bushya bwo kongeramo aluminium mu Bushinwa, mu Buhinde, mu Majyepfo y'Amajyepfo ya Aziya, no mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati bwarenze toni miliyoni 12 ku mwaka, bituma ubushobozi bugera kuri toni miliyoni 150 ku isi bugabanuka cyane. Guhera mu 2026, imishinga iteganijwe yo mu rwego rwo hejuru izagabanuka cyane. Ingano y'ingufu zizagezwa ku mubare muto w'imishinga yamaze kwemezwa yo kongera cyangwa kwagura, aho biteganijwe ko izamuka ry'ubushobozi buri mwaka rizagabanuka rikagera kuri toni miliyoni 1.5-2.5.

Muri icyo gihe, izamuka ry’imiterere y’ibiciro by’ingufu, ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’amategeko ryaUburyo bwo Gutunganya Umupaka wa Karuboni (CBAM), kandi kwiyongera kw'ivugurura ry'isoko ry'amashanyarazi mu Bushinwa bizamura cyane ikiguzi cyose cy'ubushobozi buke. Dukurikije ibipimo bya Cymber, ikiguzi cya 90 ku ijana ku gipimo cy'ikiguzi cya aluminiyumu ku isi nyuma ya 2027 biteganijwe ko kizazamukaho 18%–25% ugereranije no mu 2024, bigatuma habaho kugabanuka gukomeye mu buryo rusange bw'ingufu zitangwa.

II. Uruhande rw'ibikenewe: Itandukaniro hagati y'inzego gakondo n'izikiri gutera imbere, nyamara ukwihangana muri rusange kuracyari

Kuva mu 2025 kugeza mu 2030, ikoreshwa ry’ibikoresho bya aluminiyumu ku isi yose riteganijwe kugumana igipimo cy’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku mwaka (CAGR) cya 2.8%–3.2%, bitewe ahanini n’ibice bitatu by’ingenzi bikurikira:

1. Ubwikorezi bworoheje (Imodoka z'abagenzi + Imodoka z'ubucuruzi):
   Bitewe n’ubwiyongere bukomeje bw’ubwiyongere bw’ingufu nshya ku isi, icyifuzo cy’urupapuro rwa aluminiyumu, umurongo, na foil byo gukoresha mu modoka biteganijwe kwiyongera ku gipimo cya 6.5%–7.5 buri mwaka. Gukoresha ibintu bishya kuva mu 2023 kugeza 2030 biteganijwe kugera kuri toni miliyoni 8.5, bigatuma biba ari byo bituma abantu benshi bakenera ibintu byinshi.
2. Ingufu z'izuba n'ububiko bw'ingufu:
   Ubusabe bw'amadirishya ya aluminiyumu, inyubako zo kuyishyiraho, n'urupapuro rwa batiri biracyari hejuru, aho biteganijwe ko bizaba ku kigero cya CAGR kingana na 5% kuva mu 2026 kugeza 2030. Izamuka rizagaragara cyane cyane ku masoko yo hanze y'Ubushinwa.
3. Inzego gakondo (Ubwubatsi, Gupakira, Insinga z'amashanyarazi, nibindi):
   Iterambere muri utwo duce rizagabanuka kugera kuri 1%–2% ku mwaka, ariko umubare munini wabo uzakomeza gutanga inkunga ihamye.

Muri rusange, ikoreshwa ry’aluminiyumu ku isi riteganijwe kugera kuri toni miliyoni 108–112 (agaciro ka aluminiyumu gasanzwe) mu 2030, bivuze ko ubwiyongere bwa toni miliyoni 18–22 ugereranije no mu 2024.

III. Ibicuruzwa n'ibiciro: Inzira yo gukuraho ububiko ishobora gutangira muri Q2 2026

Isoko ry’ibicuruzwa bya aluminiyumu ku isi rizaguma mu cyiciro cyo gukusanya ibikoresho kugeza mu 2024-2025, aho ububiko bw’ibikoresho bihujwe n’ibicuruzwa bidakoreshwa mu gucuruza ibintu bishya biteganijwe ko buzaba buri hagati ya toni miliyoni 11 na 12. Uko umuvuduko w’ibikoresho bishya ugenda ugabanuka cyane mu gihe ubwikorezi n’ingufu nshya byinjira mu cyiciro cyo kwihutisha, Cymber iteganya ko ububiko bw’ibikoresho ku isi buzava mu gukusanya ibintu bishya bujya mu gutakaza ibintu guhera mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2026, aho uruziga rwo gukuraho ibikoresho rushobora kuzamara kugeza mu mpera za 2028.

Muri iki gihe, ikigo cy'imbaraga zikomeye kuriIgiciro cya aluminiyumu cya LME cy'amezi 3biteganijwe ko bizazamuka buhoro buhoro uvuye ku gipimo cy’amadolari ya Amerika 2,200–2,400 kuri toni. Igiciro mpuzandengo mu mwaka wa 2027–2028 giteganijwe kuba kiri muUSD 2,700–3,000 kuri toniurwego. Mu buryo nk'ubwo, impuzandengoIgiciro cy'ibanze cy'Ubushinwa bw'AmajyepfoKu isoko ry’imbere mu gihugu biteganijwe ko bizatwara RMB 19.500–22.000 kuri toni. Amafaranga y’inyongera n’amafaranga yo gutunganya ibikoresho by’impapuro, imigozi, n’ibikomoka kuri foil bizaterwa inkunga ikomeye mu gihe hakomeje kwiyongera ibiciro by’ibikoresho bikenerwa mu gutanga ibicuruzwa.